What to Do When Foreign Stocks Plummet

So what do you do when foreign stocks plummet overnight? Oddly enough sometimes the answer is buy. As odd as it sounds today the US stock market futures are down heavily pre-open yet I am looking at a forex trading chart that is modestly bullish. Now to be fair the overnight forex trading chart is extremely bearish but for whatever reason optmism seems to creep back in this morning in the US. It can’t have anything to do with the trade gap numbers, they were horrible. Yet here we are just before the open and the US dollar and Yen are both weakening relative to overnight surges. We may have a steep drop at the open but if the forex market positions hold up we’re likely looking at a intra day bottom in the S&P 500 and DIA right at or near the opening bell.

As always we let the traders in the forex market signal risk positive or averse and go with that.

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It did not take long for the forex trading market to reverse themselves after the US open, with USD continuing to rise (similar to overnight) meaning the S&P 500 losses picked up steam – adding another 50bp drop to the 100bp drop pre-open. Seeing a little levity in the 2nd-tier currencies but overall USD, Yen strength combined with euro weakness continues to dominate the forex market. We’re keeping an eye out for the daily bottom (if it comes) with our eyes fixated on the USD, Yen, Euro, and VIX as our primary indicators.

Intraday Weakening Yen and USD Presents Binary Option Call Opportunity?

As we’d hoped for earlier in the day we saw the forex markets flip around 1:05pm, shifting from highly risk negative to modestly risk positive. We looked like we’d have the oppportunity to pick up the opening leg of the hedge and double with a binary call option on the hopes of grabbing the put option later should the forex trading turn negative again.

When we looked again we saw that today was an auction day for the 10 year treasury note and then realized we were getting a false positive from the forex market activity. Ya gotta remember to check your calendars for the Fed auctions because those funds transfers screw up the charts every time. We’ll be looking at the same kind of activity tomorrow at 1pm because of the 30 year bond auction.

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