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Will Facebook Stock Be a Good Investment

Options Trading — Mon, 21 May 2012 12:40:49 +0000

Investors today will be asking themselves, “Will Facebook Stock Be a Good Investment?” If performance metrics and market IPO history carry any weight in the matter the answer in the short term appears rather obvious. Here’s what we think will happen with Facebook’s now public stock. Facebook Stock: IPOs History Not on Their Side There once was a time years ago when an average investor might have found a little known company with a cool technology that nobody understands. Facebook is not that company. Nor has any other company in recent memory made a big splash with its IPO. There is far too much money in it for the venture capitalists and investment banks to over hype and over-publicize to infinite extent to make sure every last person on the planet who would want to buy shares of Facebook be aware of the IPO last Friday. The purpose of this publicity blitz was to draw as many moths (retail investors) into the flame as humanly possible so they could be zapped and their electronic funds forever lost in the big blue lightning bolt that was the Facebook IPO. Facebook Stock a Good Investment for Venture Capitalists and Investment Bankers Think [...]

Fed POMO April 2012

Options Trading — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 12:27:39 +0000

70+% Accurate with Daily ActionOnce again we present to you the Fed POMO April 2012 edition. Operation twist continues with a mild net-injection of liquidity into the system ($1 billion net). This current Fed POMO schedule will carry us through the month of April 2012. As per our usual motis operandi we look for opportunities to grab short term trading gains in the market as a result of this massive single event movements of currency into and out of circulation. Highlights of the Fed POMO April 2012 Schedule It appears to me the biggest days (as has been the case in the previous Operation Twist cycles) are the Fed selling days – which tend to be much more highly concentrated than the buying days. Speaking of which, the liquidity injection days which are most notable this time around are April 3rd, 5th, 11th , 13th, and 25th. On the selling side (liquidity reduction days) we see high activity almost every day scheduled, essentially April 12th, 17th, 23rd, and 30th. Expect Some Serious Volatility April 19th from the Fed POMO Activity Fans of either the buy side or the sell side will note that I failed to mention the large scheduled [...]

A Simple Binary Trading Strategy

Options Trading — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 19:01:02 +0000

Ran across a simple binary trading strategy the other day that simply can’t be ignored. It involves the use of daily binary options signals and I already am aware of several day traders taking advantage of this little known but growing technique. Daily Binary Trading Strategy Using Binary Options Signals Most of my readers familiar with my work would tell you that I frequently talk about the ability to see some relatively simple patterns in the forex markets which act as “tells” (to borrow a poker term) on risky assets like the S&P 500 and AUDUSD. The problem with this kind of strategy is that it takes years to develop a feel for markets and you go near-sighted staring at computer screens all day. What if there was a simple binary trading strategy that offered a high accuracy rate but didn’t require you to juggle multiple screens at once? Obviously the header is a giveaway but the obvious answer is to use an accurate daily binary options signals service. Economics of Binary Options Signals: A Video Study To the right you’ll see a video I ran across yesterday while slummin’ on youtube for day trading tricks and ideas. The concept [...]

Day Trading Systems

Options Trading — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:11:32 +0000

Although some early day trading systems have lost their sheen since the beginning of the millenium other platforms and methods have sprung up in their place. New platforms designed with the ultimate short term trader in mind exist today based on the industry desire to satisfy clients with a desire for high liquidity and volume. Here we look at how three day trading systems work for today’s high turnover investors. Forex Trading Systems Among the biggest movers in the financial industry after the first explosion of day trading systems, forex trading continues to be popular. The expansion of retail trading platforms has made currency trading available to effectively anyone who wishes to give it a try, and many people have. The strengths of working the forex market include the high leverage available and wide variety of automated trading programs to use – including self designed expert advisor / automated trading systems. The downside is the high volatility and danger of margin calls made against highly leveraged positions. Further – leaders in “high interest rate income” currencies such Brazil’s real (amongst others) have grown wise to the impact of international forex investment in their currencies and the damage it can do [...]

Fed POMO Schedule February 2012

Options Trading — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:57:30 +0000

This is the schedule for Fed POMO – February 2012. Like previous editions of our Fed POMO series we want to be paying attention to the large favorable and unfavorable settlement dates for the market. While in general the numbers are supposed to be neutral, the implementation of the Fed POMO schedule tends to lend to imbalances on a day to day basis. Selling days (when the Fed is pulling cash out of the market) tend to be larger amplitude-wise (though fewer in number) than the buying days, which are more frequent. With that in mind we note the following potential imbalances. On the buy side the best days appear to be February 3rd, 10th, 15th, 21st, 27th, and 28th, while the largest sell days looks like they’ll fall on February 6th, 9th, 15th, 22nd, and 24th. Without further adieu, here is the official schedule. Source: Federal Reserve Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $45 billion and sell approximately $43 billion in Treasury securities over the month of February. purchase operations Operation Date1 Settlement Date Operation Type Maturity Range Expected Purchase Size February 1, 2012 February 2, 2012 Outright Treasury Coupon [...]

Day Trading Forecast 2012 Q1

Options Trading — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:05:22 +0000

My day trading forecast for 2012 Q1 is shaping up based on early warning signs in the market. Low trading volume paired with all indexes creeping upwards is all too reminiscent of previous mini-crash setups. We’re already half way into the first month of Q1 and already we’re seeing patterns we don’t like. Low Volume Creep Omnious Sign for 2012 Day Trading Forecast We’ve seen this before. Market makers have the ability to slowly grind markets upward when there is light volume. Since the end of the year the dollar has weakened against some of the major forex pairs as professional traders inch the market upward. Meanwhile it is clear that volume has continued to slacken off despite the turn of the calendar year when market activity normally picks up. Personally I think more and more traders have turned to intraday volatility trading using binary options at non-US binary options brokers in order to grind out a high yield income in a flat market (read a free binary options trading course). House Grandstanding Back in Vogue Hurts Day Trading Prospects The second, and perhaps more ominous sign of dread for day trading in 2012, is the renewal of the debt [...]

Fed POMO January 2012

Options Trading — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 18:49:00 +0000

The Fed POMO January 2012 schedule is out and is similar in size and scope to the November POMO schedule. The December POMO schedule was a bit of an abberation because of all the end of the year holidays. This marks the first installment of 2012 in the Operation Twist project begun by the Fed not long after the Jackson Hole meeting in August 2011. Quick Fed POMO Schedule Highlights It looks to me (similar to previous Operation Twist installments) that the big cash movement days will be negative days – namely those days where the Federal Reserve will be selling shorter term securities in fairly large quantities. Based on a quick review of the chart below I am seeing strong negative days on January 5th, 10th, 13th, 19th, and 30th. I’m making mental notes to myself that there is a fairly long gap between selling events toward the end of this current POMO schedule. Up days seem to be more likely (all else equal) on the strong /long treasury buy settlement dates. Based on the chart (and netting off any +/- of the sell days) it would appear the up days would likely be January 9th, 17th, 25th, and 31st. [...]

Options Expiration Week

Options Trading — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 18:57:35 +0000

Here we are at another quarterly options expiration week, and like any good options expiration week Monday morning brought high volatility and with it the DIA and S&P 500 tanking. We aren’t at the end of the trading day yet however I think we can speak with some level of certainty that we’re likely to see wild swings all week. Headlines were saying that traders were unhappy with the Eurozone deal but in all seriousness what did they expect? The Eurozone is messed up pretty badly not unlike the way some US state governments are messed up budget-wise. The difference being I suppose that our government (at least until the 2013 Congress takes office) is likely to be less stingy than their Eurozone counter-parts (to the extent such a body exists). What to Be Thankful for in 2012 Well I suppose the biggest non-event of the year was the end of quantitative easing in July. Although the market had swings up and down, the end of QE2 had very little to do with the most negative dips. You can thank the idiot Republicans in the House for that – their self-righteous grandstanding not only cost the US a credit down-grade [...]

Fed POMO Schedule December 2011

Options Trading — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 16:12:37 +0000

Well here we are – last month of the year and the Fed POMO Schedule for December 2011 is here. It’s been a remarkable year for the Fed with literally trillions of Treasury debt on their books. Today’s release includes (as anticipated) an additional $8 billion in asset sales tacked on from the POMO operation which was canceled near the end of the November 2011 POMO schedule. This round of POMO operations is the next installment of Operation Twist – a combination of buying longer dated Treasuries and selling off shorter dated Treasuries from the Fed’s portfolio accumulated in earlier rounds of Quantitative Easing. As we look at this round of Operation Twist, we see the major purchases / cash injections occuring on / settling on December 6th ,16th, 19th, and 23rd with large sales / cash reductions settling December 5th, 9th, 15th, 22nd,and 29th. Be very wary of trading activity on December 22nd. The Fed has scheduled two $8 billion cash reductions that day – the largest draw-down I can recall in a single day. I imagine there will be some significant cash-raising activity at the Primary Dealers in order to fund those Treasury purchases (Fed asset sales). (Source: Federal Reserve) Across all operations [...]

Forex Day Trading Signal Service Sees a Market Drop

Options Trading — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 21:12:12 +0000

So it was all of 5 days ago a forex day trading signal service I use foresaw a number of forces aligning to predict a strengthening USD and as a result falling stock prices. Here we are all of 5 days later and the DJIA is sitting nearly 600 points lower. I am a happy man this afternoon. What Was Evident 5 Days Ago That Brought About a Stock Market Drop? I don’t honestly have access to the internal workings of the machine that produces the forex day trading signal market calls but suffice to say I read the signals and drew my own conclusions from them. I had initially warded off US residents from subscribing to the service given it is designed for a particular type of trading not allowed in the US but the SIGNALS themselves (not necessarily the trading platform itself) have already proven themselves incredibly valuable to those versed in markets and day trading. What the signals called for were for effectively long positions on the USD against a couple of key currencies in addition to a couple of calls in the futures markets which led me to conclude that the forex day trading signal service [...]