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Short Gold ETFS Exposure Paying Off Today

Options Trading — Thu, 05 May 2011 15:58:57 +0000

No doubt Short Gold ETFs exposure is paying off today. While we’d spent a considerable amount of time talking about the need for having exposure on both the long AND short side of the commodities (suspected inflation induced) bubble, here we are riding a victory lap as we watch all the weak hands getting blown up from their leveraged positions. Don’t get me wrong: leveraged ETFs are an important investment vehicle, and are much less of a maintenance hassle than being outright short in any particular position. I think the lesson we are learning (sometimes on a daily basis) is the importance of being on both sides of the inflation/deflation fence. Short Gold ETFs Not the Only Great Trade Today Funny also in addition to the short gold ETFs windfall today is the precipitous fall of the EURUSD as a result of the weak numbers and words coming out of Europe today. The “risk-off” trade is on in a big way today, and that means EURUSD carry-trade unwind with subsequent catastrophe with all other margined assets tied to USD borrowings. WHOOOPS! Oddly enough Goldman Sachs also pulled the rug out from underneath their EURUSD bullish $1.50/EUR call just prior to [...]

Options Trading Monday Briefing

Options Trading — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 13:31:39 +0000

Options trading activity looking for small rise this morning with the rise in EURUSD, also risk forex crosses with AUD and NZL. Pre-market activity in these same risk currencies was weak so I expect a turn (and S&P 500 fall) early in the trading session. In afternoon activity we’re seeing a broad but relatively thin switch into risky forex market currencies. Doesn’t seem to me to be convincing. The market has reversed it’s earlier predicted losses however unless the forex market shift increases in conviction we still expect a modestly negative close. It’s tough to read a mixed market – overall day showing risk-averse but intra-day showing a little more risk tolerance. In past situations the overall day indicator has proven stronger. Market – You Can Teach Me to Trade Something New Every Day The learning lesson from the day’s activity is that when pre-market and regular market forces oppose each other expect a tight range with a real opportunity to close the day in the sweet spot of the binary option hedge and double position we talked about in Sept. 2009. Binary Options Hedge and Double Was in Play from the Opening Bell Trading activity today was a perfect [...]

Options Trading Signal – Who Turned on the Lights?

Options Trading — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 13:34:20 +0000

Options trading signal today let itself be known at about 9:15am EDT this morning. After heavy CHF intervention in Euro markets (thanks Zerohedge) we saw a very bearish pattern in the major cross pairs. Having said that, somewhere around 9:15am someone at the Forex trading desks flipped on the collective “risk=ok” switch this morning and lit up the risk currencies at the expense of the non-risks. Forex Trading Looking Like a False Positive – Be Wary of Distribution Mode USD a little on the strong side relative to EUR and GBP, which would be a negative for US markets. Overall though the message at the open is for risky assets, and we see that in the futures rise. I would feel a heck of a lot more comfortable though were the USD weaker against the two major pairs. I am keeping an eye out for firming of risk forex pairs at the open, otherwise I am not believing in the uptick (meaning I think we may be seeing opening up only as a reason for distribution to suckers who think they’re “buying on the dips”) Trading VIX Showing Put and Call Premiums Shrinking Noticing something interesting this morning. Seeing the [...]